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019 ▼a 813206873 ▼a 903698890 ▼a 961570964 ▼a 962681936 ▼a 965967523 ▼a 988508193 ▼a 992063624
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020 ▼a 1475505663
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020 ▼a 1475514972
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24502 ▼a A new heuristic measure of fragility and tail risks : ▼b application to stress testing/ ▼c prepared by Nassim N. Taleb [and others].
260 ▼a [Washington, D.C.]: ▼b International Monetary Fund, ▼c ?012.
300 ▼a 1 online resource (24 pages).
336 ▼a text ▼b txt ▼2 rdacontent
337 ▼a computer ▼b c ▼2 rdamedia
338 ▼a online resource ▼b cr ▼2 rdacarrier
347 ▼a data file ▼2 rda
4901 ▼a IMF working paper; ▼v WP/216
500 ▼a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Aug. 31, 2012).
500 ▼a "Monetary and Capital Markets Department."
500 ▼a "September 2012."
504 ▼a Includes bibliographical references.
520 ▼a This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
590 ▼a eBooks on EBSCOhost ▼b All EBSCO eBooks
650 0 ▼a Banks and banking ▼x Mathematical models.
650 0 ▼a Banks and banking ▼x Forecasting.
650 0 ▼a Debts, Public ▼x Mathematical models.
650 0 ▼a Debts, Public ▼x Forecasting.
650 7 ▼a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS ▼x Finance. ▼2 bisacsh
655 4 ▼a Electronic books.
7001 ▼a Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, ▼d 1960- ▼e author,
7102 ▼a International Monetary Fund. ▼b Monetary and Capital Markets Department.
830 0 ▼a IMF working paper ; ▼v WP/12/216.
85640 ▼u http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=568120
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938 ▼a YBP Library Services ▼b YANK ▼n 10691611
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