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Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan
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| 자료유형 | 단행본 |
|---|---|
| 서명/저자사항 | Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan/ prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari and Giovanni Melina. |
| 개인저자 | Batini, Nicoletta,author. Callegari, Giovanni,author, Melina, Giovanni,author, |
| 단체저자명 | International Monetary Fund. European Department. |
| 발행사항 | [Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, ?012. |
| 형태사항 | 1 online resource (60 pages): color charts. |
| 총서사항 | IMF working paper;WP/12/190 |
| ISBN | 1475537921 9781475537925 |
| 일반주기 |
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Jul. 26, 2012).
"EUR." "July 2012." |
| 서지주기 | Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-37). |
| 요약 | The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country's debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to front loaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases. |
| 일반주제명 | Multiplier (Economics) --Econometric models. Fiscal policy --United States --Econometric models. Fiscal policy --Europe --Econometric models. Fiscal policy --Japan --Econometric models. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS --Economics --Macroeconomics. POLITICAL SCIENCE --Economic Conditions. |
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