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The pre-crisis capital flow surge to emerging Europe : did countercyclical fiscal policy make a difference?

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서명/저자사항The pre-crisis capital flow surge to emerging Europe : did countercyclical fiscal policy make a difference?/ prepared by Ruben Atoyan, Albert Jaeger, and Dustin Smith.
개인저자Atoyan, Ruben(Ruben V.).
Jaeger, Albert,
Smith, Dustin,
단체저자명International Monetary Fund. European Department.
발행사항[Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, ?012.
형태사항1 online resource (34 pages).
총서사항IMF working paper,2227-8885; WP/12/222
기타형태 저록Print version: 9781475584554
ISBN1475584555
9781475584554
기타표준부호10.5089/9781475584554.001
일반주기 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Sept. 12, 2012).
"European Department."
"September 2012."
서지주기Includes bibliographical references.
요약A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorption reducing effect, as a tighter fiscal stance acts as a brake on capital flows; and (ii) an unconventional absorption-boosting effect, as a tighter fiscal stance increases investor confidence in the country. The empirical results suggest that push factors (low returns in flow-originating countries), rather than pull factors (high returns in flow-destination countries), drove most of the private capital flows to emerging Europe. And active countercyclical fiscal policy once the fiscal stance is adjusted for the automatic effects on the fiscal position of both internal and external imbalances acted as a brake on capital inflows. However, the empirical results also suggest that, even abstracting from political feasibility and fiscal policy lag considerations, countercyclical fiscal policy alone is unlikely to be an effective policy tool to put an effective brake on sudden capital flow surges.
주제명(지명)Developing countries. --fast
Europe. --fast
일반주제명Capital movements --Europe --Econometric models.
Capital movements --Developing countries --Econometric models.
Fiscal policy --Europe --Econometric models.
Fiscal policy --Developing countries --Econometric models.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS --Finance.
Capital movements --Econometric models.
Fiscal policy --Econometric models.
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