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Essays on the Macroeconomic Effects of International Trade Policy
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| 자료유형 | 학위논문 |
|---|---|
| 서명/저자사항 | Essays on the Macroeconomic Effects of International Trade Policy. |
| 개인저자 | Mix, Carter. |
| 단체저자명 | University of Rochester. School of Arts and Sciences. |
| 발행사항 | [S.l.]: University of Rochester., 2019. |
| 발행사항 | Ann Arbor: ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019. |
| 형태사항 | 177 p. |
| 기본자료 저록 | Dissertations Abstracts International 81-04A. Dissertation Abstract International |
| ISBN | 9781088303320 |
| 학위논문주기 | Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Rochester, 2019. |
| 일반주기 |
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-04, Section: A.
Advisor: Alessandria, George. |
| 이용제한사항 | This item must not be sold to any third party vendors. |
| 요약 | This dissertation is comprised of two essays regarding the way that aggregate economies respond to changes in international trade policy. Both chapters use quantitative models to determine the predicted effects of changes in either tariffs or trade costs on several aggregate variables.In the first chapter, I develop a multi-country heterogeneous firm model to study the aggregate effects of multilateral trade policy over time. The model captures the slow evolution of production and trade networks in response to trade policy as firms make durable and irreversible investments in source-specific productive capacity and destination-specific exporting capacity. It also incorporates capital, international assets, firms, and endogenous labor supply while still matching world geography. The model is calibrated to match size and trade flows of the US and its major trade partners as well as the split of trade between consumption, capital, and material goods. I find that the short run fluctuations in the economy following a policy change are a key determinant of the overall gains from trade and that transitions are not simply represented by gradual convergence to a new steady state. Futhermore, I find that the long-run effects of trade are poorly approximated by quantitative models without dynamics. While all the model features are important, the behavior of the domestic economy in the short- and long-run relies most on the semi-fixed trade networks and intertemporal trade incentives. The model is used to evaluate the effects on the US of being left out permanently or temporarily from a world trade liberalization. Being left out is quite costly, with losses in utility concentrated in the initial periods of the liberalization.The second chapter studies the importance of expectations and news regarding trade policy on the macroeconomy. We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers in a model in which trade responds gradually to changes in trade policy and trade policy changes are gradual. Our model offers insights into how changing trade barriers affects the economy and how business cycle shocks can affect trade. We find that a fall in current trade barriers has an expansionary effect while a decline in future trade costs can be recessionary on impact due to a wealth effect. Furthermore, canceling agreed upon declines in barriers is expansionary in the short-run but substantially lowers growth over the medium run. We also find that even controlling for composition, trade tends to lag the recovery in demand for tradables. We propose a method to separately identify expected and unexpected movements in trade costs. A dynamic model of trade requires both aggregate and forward-looking data to accurately identify the source of trade cost variation. |
| 일반주제명 | Economics. Macroeconomics. International trade. |
| 언어 | 영어 |
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