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Projecting Climate Change Impact on the Regional Scale: Future Changes of Wind and Wind Energy in California
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| 자료유형 | 학위논문 |
|---|---|
| 서명/저자사항 | Projecting Climate Change Impact on the Regional Scale: Future Changes of Wind and Wind Energy in California. |
| 개인저자 | Wang, Meina. |
| 단체저자명 | University of California, Davis. Atmospheric Science. |
| 발행사항 | [S.l.]: University of California, Davis., 2019. |
| 발행사항 | Ann Arbor: ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, 2019. |
| 형태사항 | 144 p. |
| 기본자료 저록 | Dissertations Abstracts International 81-04A. Dissertation Abstract International |
| ISBN | 9781085795739 |
| 학위논문주기 | Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of California, Davis, 2019. |
| 일반주기 |
Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 81-04, Section: A.
Advisor: Ullrich, Paul. |
| 이용제한사항 | This item must not be sold to any third party vendors. |
| 요약 | Unprecedented climate change is expected in this century. Although its impact on the regional scale is less well-understood. This thesis aims to bridge the gap between the relatively well-studied future change of synoptic-scale weather systems, and the localized change under future climate. First, we focused on one of the most common coastal phenomena within California's San Francisco Bay Delta and Central Valley - marine air penetration (MAP) events, which are a broad category of meteorological features that include the well-known Delta Breeze (DB). Summertime MAP episodes, identified by an inland cooling pattern and onshore wind, are selected in both observational and reanalysis dataset using a newly developed objective criteria. Correlations between MAP occurrence and synoptic-scale meteorology are then examined to understand the drivers of MAP. Historical data are first used to determine if any significant trends have been observed in the frequency and character of MAP events. Future trends in MAP are then predicted based on an investigation of how synoptic-scale meteorology will be modified in the 21st century under CMIP5 climatological projections. Based on our analysis of historical and future MAP frequency (under RCP8.5), a weak positive trend (~0.2 days/century) is identified in the occurrence of sufficiently strong summertime MAP days, although further study is needed.Second, we analyzed the California wind resource variability under the future climate. Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. In this study, historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.Third, we expanded our analysis to the end-of-century, and developed a statistical model for wind patterns classification. Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze wind patterns in California using model simulations from the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover both historical (1980-2000) and end-of-century (2080-2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within clusters. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.All three studies greatly advance our understanding of the climate change impact on the regional scale. Future projections for wind and wind energy resources in California provide valuable and actionable insight for stakeholders, and such information is crucial in aiding future climate mitigation and adaption. |
| 일반주제명 | Atmospheric sciences. Regional studies. Alternative energy. Climate change. |
| 언어 | 영어 |
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