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A financial conditions index for South Africa
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| 자료유형 | 단행본 |
|---|---|
| 서명/저자사항 | A financial conditions index for South Africa/ prepared by Nombulelo Gumata, Nir Klein, and Eliphas Ndou. |
| 개인저자 | Gumata, Nombulelo,author. Klein, Nir,author, Ndou, Eliphas,author, |
| 단체저자명 | International Monetary Fund. African Department. |
| 발행사항 | [Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, ?012. |
| 형태사항 | 1 online resource (20 pages): charts. |
| 총서사항 | IMF working paper;WP/12/196 |
| ISBN | 9781475555639 1475555636 |
| 일반주기 |
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Aug. 2, 2012).
"African Department." "August 2012." |
| 서지주기 | Includes bibliographical references (page 16). |
| 요약 | "The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead"--Page [1]. |
| 주제명(지명) | South Africa. --fast |
| 일반주제명 | Finance --South Africa. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS --Economics --General. Finance. |
| 언어 | 영어 |
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